Your 2025 Crystal Ball Predictions Revisited: Was Anybody Actually Right?

Three hundred and thirty-six days ago, we published the 2025 crystal ball predictions from The White Coat Investor readers. Like just about every other year, I figured the majority of them would be wrong. Maybe some people would get lucky, but we know there’s a reason why one of the mantras on this site is about how our crystal balls are always so cloudy.

When I wrote the 2025 crystal ball predictions column that ran on January 12, questions filled the air about how the first year of the second Trump administration would play out, whether an AI bubble would pop (the same question we’ve asked for the past few years), if the stock market and crypto would continue to be in full bull mode, and if the threat of tariffs on US allies would hurt the economy.

Nearly 12 months later, the world has changed dramatically. Just like it does every year.

Since I’m a sucker for history (ancient and recent), let’s, for just a moment, return to the time of January 2025—when people didn’t know what they didn’t know but gave valiant predictions anyway—and figure out if anybody got anything right.

2025 Crystal Ball Prediction Results

Note: all of the 2025 predictions below are italicized and bolded.

From Reader Kendall, an ophthalmologist from North Carolina

Interest rates will only drop by 50-75 basis points to keep inflation in check. Home prices will stay high due to a lack of supply despite interest rates only dropping minimally. Value will outperform growth in the setting of imported goods costing more under Trump’s trade policy. Bitcoin will peak in April and then sharply drop thereafter. The Russian-Ukraine war will end in 2025 under Trump.

The Fed dropped interest rates three times in 2025 for a total of 75 basis points, and home prices still seem rather inflated. Kendall was right about those. His last two predictions were incorrect. As for value vs. growth, here’s what the YTD totals were at the end of November: US value stocks were up 14.35%; US growth stocks were up 20.03%. Growth ended up way outperforming value.

A selection of predictions from WCI commenter TomS Prognosticator

A Supreme Court justice will be impeached but not removed. Nuclear fusion will get closer, but still be a few years away from being commercially viable. Bitcoin will collapse and stablecoins will become the darlings of the cryptocurrency world. Quantum computing will be used to hack previously unbreakable IT security systems, throwing everyone into a tizzy. AI companies will continue to grow at crazy rates. Property/casualty insurance companies will start to consolidate or collapse under the weight of increasing losses due to weather-related disasters.

I’m not sure about the nuclear fusion or quantum computing predictions, but neither seems correct at the moment. A number of judges have come under attack, but nobody on the federal level has been impeached. AI companies have continued to grow massively. Bitcoin reached as high as $126,000, but in the past few weeks, it’s fallen pretty hard. I wouldn’t call that a collapse. At least not yet.

From financial services company UBS

We think the US equity market looks attractive and expect the S&P 500 to hit 6,600 by the end of 2025, around 8% higher than today’s levels. We also expect inflation to keep falling, even if selective tariffs contribute to a one-off increase in some prices. US goods prices have been in deflation for the past three years, while stubbornly high shelter prices are easing. In our view, the Fed is likely to look past tariff-induced price increases and will cut interest rates by a further 100bps during 2025, bringing rates close to our estimate of neutral (3.25%-3.50%) by the end of the year. We expect gold to build on its gains in 2025 [gold was up 26.7% in 2024].

Mostly good predictions here. The S&P nearly hit $7,000 in October, and it should finish the year right around its record high. Inflation has stayed steady, though it’s inched upward. And gold has continued to be awesome (as of November 30, it was up 60.2% YTD).

From WCI columnist Charles Patterson

My predictions are perennially wrong, and so I am going to try something different this year: whatever I think, I am going to predict the opposite:

I think the market will be sluggish, even over the first portion of the year, but will end down 10%-15%. Therefore, I predict that the market will be up by 10%-15% at the end of 2025. Employment will be down, borderline recession. Therefore, I predict that unemployment will be at an all-time low. Housing will be slower this year, with mortgage rates increasing and sales slipping. Therefore, I predict that the housing market will be strong, with prices stable. The geopolitical landscape will be more uncertain than ever. Therefore, we will be closer to world peace than at any time in history. We are likely to see massive government slowing, probably a shutdown as the funding bill looms in Q1. Therefore, I predict that our government will be more efficient than ever.

Patterson was wrong (therefore, he was right) about the stock market being up by 10%-15% (as of this writing, the Dow Jones is up about 15% and the S&P 500 is up about 17.6% on the year). The employment rate stayed about the same, but we are definitely NOT closer to world peace. Oh, and the US had the longest government shutdown in history in 2025.

From analyst and writer Ben Carlson

I’m fairly confident the stock market is due for a correction. I am not confident at all in my ability to predict the timing or magnitude of said correction. Preparation is easier than predictions.

By mid-April, when stocks were way down thanks in part to the Liberation Day tariffs, it certainly looked like the stock market was wavering. But that long-awaited correction hasn’t come to fruition. Maybe 2026 will be different.

From Bloomberg

[The] Magnificent 7’s 2025 profit growth projected to slow to 18% [in 2024, NVIDIA, Meta, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft rose 33%].

In its third-quarter report, Nvidia showed its revenue was up 62% year over year. Amazon, up about 9.4% YTD, was the worst performer of the seven. If you were following a Magnificent 7 index, you’d be up about 23.2%.

One prediction from commenter Will R

The US will have a recession.

At some point, the people who predict this every year will be proven right. 2025 was not that year, however.

A selection of predictions from commenter ADRad

I’ll take a shot again since I did pretty well on last year's predictions.

Housing remains tight with continued slowly increasing prices and lower than expected drops in the 10-year Treasury.  International actually have a better year than US stocks. Also, small caps finally have their year over large caps. I also think the Ukraine-Russia war ends later this year with Ukraine giving up some of its territory but joining the EU and NATO. TikTok US will sell to stay alive. Trump makes tax cuts permanent and explodes the deficit even more than his last presidency.

The 10-year Treasury yields have dropped a little in 2025, and while large caps continued to dominate, international stocks were 28.76% YTD and US stocks were up 17.16% YTD, as of the end of November. And as bonkers as it sounds, TikTok STILL hasn't been sold.

Real estate platform Redfin

Mortgage rates are likely to remain in the high-6% range throughout 2025, with the weekly average rate fluctuating throughout the year but averaging around 6.8%. Investors are anticipating that if President-elect Donald Trump implements a significant portion of his proposed tax cuts and tariffs, and the economy stays strong, the Fed will only cut its policy rate twice in 2025, keeping mortgage rates high. Tariffs could be inflationary, and enacting more tax cuts would increase the US deficit, both of which would push mortgage rates up. High mortgage rates are the second part of the equation that will keep homebuying unaffordable.

The Fed ended up cutting rates three times, and mortgage rates dropped by a little less than 1%. According to CBS News, the average mortgage rate on a 30-year term is about 6.12%, and it’s 5.37% on a 15-year term (in January, those rates were 7.04% and 6.26%, respectively). So, Redfin was a little conservative with its prediction.

Financial Times

Will Bitcoin hit $200,000? Yes. Bitcoin topped $100,000 only in December, so a further doubling might seem a stretch—but why not? The Trump team’s wholehearted embrace of crypto, with digital asset advocates named to top Washington jobs, has already fueled the post-election ascent to record highs. Under friendlier leadership, the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to end its aggressive lawsuits against crypto companies and create rules to make Wall Street banks and asset managers more comfortable to trade and hold crypto. An inflow of institutional money, without the fear of lawsuits, will only send the price of Bitcoin higher.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to crypto. It’s been tanking lately, despite the administration’s whole-hearted embrace of it.

WCI Founder Dr. Jim Dahle

My crystal ball is cloudy as always, and I am changing nothing in my financial plans based on these predictions.

I don't think we're going to have a recession, but I think the US stock market will have a negative return this year. I think Bitcoin will also have a negative return this year after an incredible 2024. Small and value stocks will outperform large and growth stocks for the first time in many years. Inflation will continue to be controlled. Interest rates will be slightly lower at year's end than at year's beginning. There will be no crash in housing prices due to ongoing limited supply. There will be a resolution of the Ukraine war that neither side will be thrilled with, but Russia will be happier than Ukraine. Conflict in the Middle East will continue to spread. The Dodgers will win the World Series.

The misses on the stock market, Bitcoin’s performance, the Russia-Ukraine war, and small and value stocks outperforming large and growth notwithstanding, calling the Dodgers' World Series win made up for all of it.

 

Overall, predictors were too pessimistic on the stock market and a little too optimistic on global politics. But who knows, all of that could change by next year.

Now, it’s your turn for 2026. Let us know in the comment section or via email ([email protected]) what’s going to happen in the new year when it comes to finances, investing, or anything relating to money. I don’t care if your prediction is obvious or outlandish, funny or fiendish. Just give me your best shot at prognosticating, and we’ll publish the results in a few weeks.

Money Song of the Week

From special guest writer Dr. Jim Dahle:

I asked Josh if he had ever used The Barenaked Ladies’ If I Had a $1,000,000 as the Money Song of the Week. As a music guru/snob, his response was essentially that it was too OBVIOUS, like using Pink Floyd's Money.

I'm a big fan of obvious, though, and I think it deserves a mention.

The lyrics are classic:

“If I had a million dollars, we wouldn't have to walk to the store/If I had a million dollars, No, we'd take a limousine ‘cause it costs more/If I had a million dollars, we wouldn't have to eat Kraft dinner. But we would eat Kraft dinner, of course we would, we'd just eat more. And buy really expensive ketchups with it.”

It's a silly yet aspirational song that many of us who grew up without much wealth can relate to, a bit like Chris Janson's Buy Me a Boat. One of the best parts of building real wealth is realizing you can buy a whole lot more than a boat or some extra food with it. You can really change your life and the lives of those around you.

[AUTHOR'S NOTE: The best thing I can say about this song is that it doesn’t mention anything about Chickity China the Chinese chicken.]

Tweet of the Week

Happy holidays, everyone!

What are your predictions for 2026?

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