When Bitcoin Could Peak This Cycle, Based on Historical Patterns

A new analysis by popular crypto analyst CryptoCon suggests that Bitcoin’s current market cycle may reach its peak in October 2025—just five months from now.

Drawing from historical data, CryptoCon highlights a consistent pattern across BTC’s previous bull cycles: each cycle top occurs roughly 152 weeks after the prior cycle bottom.

This time-based model, observed across three previous cycles, places the expected top for the ongoing fourth cycle in the fall of this year.

How This Cycle Compares

According to CryptoCon, the Bitcoin market currently sits at around week 131 of the cycle that began in late 2022. That leaves approximately 21 weeks—or five months—until the anticipated cycle peak.

In previous cycles:

Cycle 1 (2010–2014) peaked in July 2013 at week 133. Cycle 2 (2015–2018) peaked in July 2017, also around week 133. Cycle 3 (2019–2022) topped in June 2021, again aligning with this cycle timing model.

Given this historical symmetry, October 2025 aligns with week 152 and is considered a likely window for a market top.

Market Sentiment and Misconceptions

CryptoCon also addressed a common narrative circulating among some investors who believe the current cycle may extend into 2026 due to relatively slower price movement in recent months. However, the analyst argues that the majority of data supports a 2025 conclusion for the current cycle, in line with previous patterns.

By this stage in earlier cycles, Bitcoin had typically already formed an initial peak and entered the final bullish run. While the current price action appears more gradual, CryptoCon maintains that October remains the most probable timeframe for a market top.

Outlook

As anticipation builds, traders and long-term holders alike are watching closely to see if the timing model plays out as expected. With five months to go, the crypto market could enter its final stretch of acceleration—if history is any guide.

“Let’s see what October brings,” CryptoCon concludes. “More waiting inbound…”

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