Three long shots with best chance to become Hart Trophy finalists

This season’s Hart Trophy race is shaping up to be a fascinating one.

The usual suspects are there. Nathan MacKinnon is the best player on the best team. Nikita Kucherov is on a scoring spree that puts him in rare company. And as long as Connor McDavid has air in his lungs, he will be in the mix for the NHL’s MVP award.

But which outsiders could crash the party and become finalists? Here are three players who have strong cases:

Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks

Players whose teams miss the playoffs rarely end up as MVP finalists. Only three since the turn of the millennium — McDavid in 2018-19, Steven Stamkos in 2011-12 and Jarome Iginla in 2001-02 — have finished in the top three in voting despite sitting out the post-season.

That likely means Celebrini is out of the running unless the Sharks, who woke up Tuesday with a 25.8 per cent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, defy those odds. But if San Jose somehow finds a way into the playoffs for the first time since 2019, then Celebrini deserves consideration.

Celebrini’s 96 points — 51 more than his next closest teammate (Will Smith) — speak for themselves. At his current pace of 1.41 points per game, the 19-year-old Celebrini will finish the season with 116, which would be the third most by a teenager in league history behind Wayne Gretzky (137 in 1979-80) and Sidney Crosby (120 in 2006-07).

An argument can be made that Celebrini is the most well-rounded forward in the league. He ranks inside the top five at the position in defensive plays (league-leading 454), slot-driving plays (474) and scoring chances (250), as well as seventh in puck-battle wins (202). It would not be surprising if Celebrini winds up on a lot of Hart Trophy ballots even if the Sharks fail in their pursuit of a playoff spot.

“The way he drives our group into the fight, the way he drives and plays a 200-foot game is super impressive for a young player,” Sharks coach Ryan Warsofsky told NHL.com. “The way he defends. He’s arguably one of our most physical defensive players and can close and kill plays, and the way he can drive pucks in the offence. He’s obviously had a really good year and has really put people on notice of who he is, that’s for sure.”

Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders

Most of the headlines out of Long Island this season have been about rookie defenceman Matthew Schaefer, and understandably so. But the Islanders would be nowhere near a playoff spot without their starting goaltender. Sorokin has kept the Islanders afloat almost single-handedly, saving an eye-popping 61.9 goals above expected in 45 games this season. (Connor Hellebuyck, who won the Hart Trophy last season, stopped 41.7 goals above expected in 63 games.)

Sorokin plays behind one of the league’s worst defences; New York averages 3.43 expected goals against per 60 minutes when Sorokin is in net, which places him 71st out of 72 goaltenders who have appeared in at least 10 games this season.

And yet Sorokin leads all goaltenders in shutouts (seven), quality-start rate (82.2 per cent) and total steals (14). A steal occurs when a goaltender’s GSAE is greater than the final score differential. (Sorokin recorded his latest steal Sunday when he saved 2.5 goals above expected in the Islanders’ 1-0 win against the Columbus Blue Jackets.)

Remarkably, Sorokin has stolen nearly one-third of his starts (14-of-45). Put another way: Sorokin has directly contributed to 28 of the Islanders’ 85 standings points.

“He has an impact every night he’s in the net for us,” Islanders forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau told reporters earlier this season. “He gives us a chance to win, or he wins the game himself sometimes. He’s our best player most of the nights. I would for sure consider him in the Hart race.”

Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets

Werenski was a dark-horse MVP candidate last season, finishing seventh in voting and even receiving one first-place nod. Columbus has surged into third place in the Metropolitan Division under new coach Rick Bowness, who has guided the team to an 18-3-4 record since Jan. 13. (The Blue Jackets’ 8-0-4 run ended Sunday thanks to Sorokin and the Islanders.)

Werenski’s case for the Hart Trophy is fairly straightforward. He averages 26:23 of ice time per game, second only to Quinn Hughes (27:44) among all skaters, and his 75 points are second most on defence behind Evan Bouchard (79). Werenski is the only defenceman in the league who leads his team in points.

Columbus’ attack runs through Werenski, whose 592 offence-generating plays in all situations lead all defencemen despite missing seven games. Those include passes and carries to the slot, as well as slot shots on net and other plays that often translate to goals. The Blue Jackets have outscored opponents 74-57 during Werenski’s minutes at five-on-five.

“I’m at a point where I’m a veteran guy and I think it’s important to lead by example,” Werenski told reporters. “And doing that means doing what you’re capable of, and, for me, I feel like that’s driving the offence and bringing our team into that way.”

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