SpaceX stock has staged one of the most violent reversals of the year. SPCX closed Wednesday at $146.15, up 9.65% on the day, and is now roughly 40% above the $104.83 low printed in the first days of August. On a float basis that swing is worth around $530 billion in added market value, taking the publicly traded market capitalisation back toward $1.9 trillion. Calculated across all share classes, the number sits above $2.2 trillion.
SPCX price in USDFive sessions ago the stock was an all-time-low story. It is now trading above its IPO price again, with short sellers in retreat and Wall Street reopening the bull case. Below is what actually caused the move, what the 4-hour chart is signalling, and where the risk sits.
Why is SpaceX stock up 40% in five days?
Four separate catalysts stacked on top of each other in the space of one week.
The lockup did not break the stock. On 6 August, more than 911 million insider shares became eligible for sale, more than doubling the tradable float. The market had spent the previous session pricing in a flood of selling, sending SPCX to an all-time low near $105. The flood did not arrive. Shares rose on the unlock day itself and have not looked back since. That single fact removed the largest overhang on the name.
Short sellers capitulated. Short interest collapsed from around 34% to roughly 11% as the expanded float gave bears an exit and the lockup thesis failed. A move of that size in a stock with a still-tight float mechanically amplifies every buy order.Musk reset the story. An all-hands video released on 11 August moved the narrative from rockets to artificial intelligence, and the market repriced accordingly.Wall Street piled in. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating with a $300 base target and laid out a $600 bull case, a scenario that implies an $8 trillion valuation. Arete lifted its target to $450 from $401. Goldman Sachs then published The Second Space Age on 12 August, projecting a $1.8 trillion global space economy by 2035 and flagging launch infrastructure as the sector chokepoint where value accrues disproportionately.What did Elon Musk say about SpaceX AI revenue?
The all-hands was the pivot point. In a roughly 30-minute video posted to X, Musk told employees that AI revenue would "exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September" and would "significantly exceed" the rest of the business in the fourth quarter. He went further, arguing AI would account for 99% of the company's value within five years.
The supporting targets are aggressive:
10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity by the end of 2027, which Musk values at $30 to $50 per watt, implying $300 billion to $500 billion in annual AI revenue by 2028Grok 4.6 shipping within about a week, 4.7 three to four weeks later, and Grok 5 before year-endGrok trained on SpaceX's full internal corpus, spanning 25 years of engineering and operations dataAn exclusive hardware commitment to Nvidia's Vera Rubin architectureStarlink now serving 167 countries with 22 million mobile users and 13 million high-bandwidth subscribersThe starting point is real but the gap is wide. In Q2, AI contributed $2.56 billion of $7.81 billion in total revenue, behind the $4.29 billion from the Starlink-led connectivity segment. Group revenue rose 92% year over year, Starlink grew 67%, and launches were up 29%, but the company still reported operating losses on $18.4 billion of capital expenditure, $15.8 billion of it AI-related. Management is guiding to a roughly $100 billion annualised revenue run rate by December, more than triple the pace implied by Q2.
Layered on top is the pending $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor, the AI coding platform built by Anysphere, expected to close in Q3. Morgan Stanley models Cursor at $2.5 billion of revenue this year and $13 billion in 2027, with annual recurring revenue reaching $8 billion by year-end and around $33 billion by 2030.
What does the SPCX chart say about the next move?
The 4-hour chart shows a textbook V-recovery off a well-defined base.
Structure. After the post-IPO blow-off top at $225.64, SPCX spent seven weeks grinding lower in a clean descending channel into the $106 zone, marked on the chart as horizontal support at $106.33. That level held on three separate tests through late July and early August, forming the base. Since 6 August the stock has printed an unbroken series of higher lows and higher highs, with five consecutive large-bodied green candles taking price from the low $110s to the mid $140s.Immediate resistance is $150.31. That is the upper horizontal marked on the chart and it lines up with the June breakdown shelf. Price tagged $149.60 in the overnight session and was rejected, closing back at $146.24. A clean 4-hour close above $150.31 opens the door to the $160 to $161 zone, which is where SPCX closed on its first day of trading. Above that, the next meaningful level is the debut-day high at $176.52.Support levels to watch. The first is the $135 IPO price, which flipped from resistance to support on 10 August. Below that sits the $128 to $130 congestion zone from the 6 to 7 August reversal. A loss of $128 would put the $106.33 base back in play and invalidate the recovery structure entirely.RSI is the warning sign. The 14-period RSI sits at 66.62 against a signal line at 55.29. That is not yet overbought, but it is the highest reading since the June peak and it has gone near-vertical alongside price. Momentum this steep off a base typically produces a consolidation or a sharp mean-reversion candle before continuation. The gap between RSI and its moving average is the widest of the entire recovery, which historically resolves through either a sideways pause or a fast retrace to the 20-period average.
Net read: the trend is up and the base is credible, but the risk-reward for chasing at $146 into $150 resistance with RSI at 67 is poor. The cleaner setups are a confirmed breakout and retest of $150.31, or a pullback into the $135 to $138 pocket.
How does SPCX compare to its $135 IPO price?
SpaceX went public on 12 June in the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion at an indicative $135 per share and a $1.75 trillion valuation. The stock opened at $150, ran to $176.52 intraday, and closed at $160.95, a 19.2% first-day gain. It then spent nearly two months underwater.
Here is where things stand against every relevant reference point:
| IPO offer price | $135.00 | +8.3% |
| First-day close | $160.95 | -9.2% |
| Post-IPO all-time high | $225.64 | -35.2% |
| August low | $104.83 | +39.4% |
So despite a 40% five-day rally and a $530 billion swing in market value, anyone who bought the first-day close is still down. Only IPO allocation holders and buyers below $135 are in profit. That matters, because it means overhead supply from disappointed June buyers sits directly in the $150 to $176 band the stock is now approaching.
What are the risks behind the SpaceX stock rally?
Three concrete ones.
A second lockup tranche lands on 20 August. Roughly 319 million additional shares become eligible. The first unlock was absorbed, but it came at an all-time low with sentiment already washed out. This one arrives after a 40% run, which is a very different setup for anyone sitting on paper gains.
Valuation is stretched on any conventional measure. Morningstar holds a $62 fair value estimate on SPCX with a one-star rating, implying roughly 58% downside, and Chief US Market Strategist Dave Sekera has explicitly urged investors to separate the stock's trading action from its underlying fundamentals. His argument is that the recent move reflects supply and demand mechanics around float and short covering rather than a change in intrinsic value.
The AI timeline is checkable and tight. Musk's September claim is not a vague vision statement. Within roughly six weeks the company either reports AI revenue above the roughly $5.25 billion that the rest of the business generates, or it does not. Goldman Sachs modelled about $15.6 billion in total AI revenue for all of 2026, which sits well below the run rate Musk is implying. Grok also currently trails leading models on several major benchmarks, which complicates a valuation that now leans heavily on AI monetisation.
Why does SPCX matter for crypto traders?
More than most equities. SpaceX carries 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet according to its S-1, making it one of the larger corporate BTC holders. A tokenised version of SPCX trades on Solana via Backpack, redeemable for the underlying share, and SPCX-USDC perpetual futures trade on Hyperliquid. During the IPO window those perps traded around $176 while the offer price sat at $135, effectively front-running the listing.
That makes SPCX one of the first genuinely cross-market assets: a Nasdaq mega-cap with a Bitcoin treasury, an onchain tokenised twin, and a crypto-native perpetual market that often moves first.
SpaceX stock vs Bitcoin: which has actually performed better since the IPO?
This is the comparison that matters for anyone who had capital to deploy on 12 June 2026, the day SPCX listed. Using the same-day snapshot for crypto and the IPO price for the stock, here is how $10,000 would have fared through Wednesday's close.
| SPCX at IPO price | $135.00 | $146.15 | +8.26% | $10,826 |
| SPCX bought on day one | $160.95 | $146.15 | -9.20% | $9,080 |
| Bitcoin | $63,359.71 | $63,402 | +0.07% | $10,007 |
| Ethereum | $1,664.39 | $1,878 | +12.83% | $11,283 |
| XRP | $1.13 | $1.0044 | -11.12% | $8,888 |
| Equal-weight BTC, ETH, XRP basket | +0.60% | $10,060 |
Three conclusions fall out of that table.
Ethereum beat everything. $ETH is the only asset in the comparison that produced a double-digit return over the two months, outperforming even the best-case SPCX entry at the IPO allocation price. It also beat the equal-weight crypto basket by a wide margin, because $XRP dragged the basket down with an 11% loss.Bitcoin did almost nothing, and that was arguably the point. $BTC is essentially flat over the period, up 0.07%. In a stretch where SpaceX shares fell 53.5% from $225.64 to $104.83 and then rallied 39% in five sessions, Bitcoin moved in a band of a few thousand dollars. The asset class usually described as the volatile one was the stable holding in this comparison. That is the single most surprising line in the table.Diversification mattered less than selection. An equal-weight three-coin basket returned 0.60%, barely distinguishable from holding Bitcoin alone, because ETH's gain and XRP's loss largely cancelled. Concentrating in the right asset beat spreading across the sector.The honest caveat: almost nobody bought SPCX at $135. That price was reserved for institutions and a limited slice of retail participants in the bookbuild. Anyone buying on the open market at the day-one close of $160.95 is down 9.2%, which puts real-world SpaceX buyers behind Bitcoin, behind Ethereum, and behind the basket. The stock only looks like the winner if you had allocation.
It is also worth remembering that these are two very different two-month stories. Bitcoin is roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198 and has spent 2026 in a drawdown driven by record ETF outflows and a cautious Fed, briefly touching a 21-month low near $58,000 in late June. SPCX, by contrast, completed an entire boom, bust, and recovery cycle inside eight weeks. Similar destination, wildly different journey.
What could SPCX and Bitcoin do by the end of 2026?
Nobody knows, and anyone claiming otherwise is selling something. What can be done is to lay out what published forecasts actually say, and be clear that these are scenarios rather than predictions.
The SPCX range is extraordinarily wide. Morgan Stanley's framework runs from a $75 bear case to a $300 base target and a $600 bull case, the last of which implies an $8 trillion valuation. Arete sits at $450. Morningstar, at the opposite end, holds a $62 fair value estimate with a one-star rating. From $146.15, that spread runs from roughly 58% downside to more than 300% upside. A dispersion that wide is itself information: it tells you the analyst community has no consensus on what this company is worth, because the valuation now hinges almost entirely on an AI business that is two quarters old.The Bitcoin range is nearly as wide, for different reasons. Year-end 2026 forecasts currently span roughly $38,000 to $250,000. NYDIG's scenario analysis flags a potential bottom near $38,000 to $39,000 by October if the historical cycle repeats. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick and Bernstein have both cut their targets while still pointing to a recovery toward $100,000 to $150,000. Arthur Hayes expects $125,000 by December on improving liquidity. Tom Lee remains the outlier at $200,000 to $250,000. Algorithmic models are far more conservative, clustering around $64,000 to $67,000 for December.How the two compare on a scenario basis:
| Bear | $62 to $75, roughly -49% to -58% | $38,000 to $39,000, roughly -39% |
| Base | $300, roughly +105% | $100,000 to $150,000, roughly +58% to +137% |
| Bull | $600, roughly +310% | $200,000 to $250,000, roughly +215% to +294% |
The shapes are strikingly similar. Both assets carry roughly 40% to 55% downside in a bear case and roughly 3x upside in a bull case. The difference is what drives them. SPCX resolves on a company-specific, checkable event: whether AI revenue actually overtakes the rest of the business in September and whether the $100 billion annualised run rate lands by December. Bitcoin resolves on macro liquidity, Fed policy, ETF flows, and whether the four-year cycle framework still holds.
That distinction is the practical takeaway. SPCX gives you concentrated, binary, single-company risk with a defined catalyst calendar. Bitcoin gives you diffuse, macro-driven risk with no earnings date. Holding both is not diversification in the conventional sense, since both are high-beta risk assets that sold off together in the first half of 2026, but they do respond to genuinely different catalysts on different timelines.
One final wrinkle worth flagging: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC. If you buy SPCX, you own a slice of a Bitcoin position whether you wanted one or not.
Where can you trade SpaceX stock?
XTB offers direct access to SPCX shares on Nasdaq alongside thousands of other global stocks and ETFs, with 0% commission on monthly turnover up to 100,000 EUR. Above that threshold a 0.2% commission applies, minimum 10 EUR, and a 0.5% currency conversion cost may apply. The platform also gives you the charting tools to actually work the levels discussed above rather than market-buying into resistance.
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