Solana (SOL) Price: Is This Pattern Setting Up the Next Rally to $195?

TLDR

Solana has dropped 15% over the past week, currently trading around $153.53 down from recent highs near $180 TD Sequential indicator has flashed a bullish buy signal on the 12-hour chart after completing a nine-candle red pattern Long-term holders are accumulating during the dip as shown by declining Liveliness metrics to 0.76 Positive funding rates at 0.0041% indicate bullish sentiment among futures traders A whale recently moved 2.86 million SOL tokens ($441 million) to Binance exchange

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Solana has experienced a sharp decline over the past week, falling 15% as part of a broader cryptocurrency market pullback. The layer-1 blockchain token now trades at approximately $153.53, down from its recent peak around $180.

Despite the recent price weakness, technical analysis suggests a potential reversal may be forming. The Tom Demark Sequential indicator has generated a bullish buy signal on Solana’s 12-hour price chart.

The TD Sequential is a technical analysis tool used to identify potential reversal points in asset prices. The indicator works in two phases: setup and countdown. During the setup phase, nine candles of the same color are counted, which don’t need to be consecutive. Once complete, the indicator signals a potential reversal.

#Solana $SOL looks ready to bounce with the TD Sequential flashing a buy signal on the 12-hour chart! pic.twitter.com/C3uVWwyZPj

— Ali (@ali_charts) June 1, 2025

In Solana’s case, the setup phase recently completed with nine red candles, generating a buy signal. This technical pattern has emerged after the cryptocurrency’s 13% drawdown over the past week.

Solana
SOL Price

On-Chain Metrics Show Long-Term Holder Confidence

On-chain data provides additional context for Solana’s recent price action. The cryptocurrency’s Liveliness metric has dropped to 0.76, marking its lowest level in the past 14 days according to Glassnode data.

Liveliness measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to total coin days accumulated. This metric tracks long-term holder activity. When Liveliness decreases, it indicates that dormant wallets are accumulating rather than selling.

The declining Liveliness suggests that Solana’s long-term holders view the recent price decline as a buying opportunity. This accumulation behavior typically signals confidence in the asset’s future prospects.

Funding rates in the futures market also support bullish sentiment. Solana’s funding rate has turned positive at 0.0041%, indicating that long position holders are paying short sellers.

Large Whale Movement Creates Market Uncertainty

However, recent whale activity presents a potential headwind for Solana’s price recovery. Whale Alert reported that a large holder moved approximately 2.86 million SOL tokens worth $441 million to the Binance exchange.

Large transfers to exchanges often precede selling activity. Given the massive scale of this transaction, it could create downward pressure on Solana’s price if the whale decides to distribute their holdings.

The timing of this whale movement coincides with Solana’s technical buy signal, creating competing forces in the market. Technical indicators suggest potential upside while large holder behavior hints at possible distribution.

Price targets for Solana vary depending on market conditions. If long-term holder accumulation continues and broader market conditions stabilize, the cryptocurrency could rebound toward $171.88.

Should that level hold as support, further gains toward $195.55 become possible. However, intensified selling pressure could push SOL down to $142.59.

The cryptocurrency market’s broader sentiment will likely influence Solana’s near-term direction. Current funding rates and accumulation patterns by long-term holders suggest underlying strength despite recent price weakness.

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