McIlroy remains among favourites heading into U.S. Open despite recent struggles

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Rommie Analytics

OAKMONT, Pa. – There’s certainly a joke somewhere about a mad scientist, a man of faith and a retiree who walk into a bar.

That’s no laughing matter at the U.S. Open this week, however, with Oakmont Country Club the venue of choice.

The scientist is of course, Bryson DeChambeau. Scottie Scheffler is the man of faith, often citing how all he’s called to do is compete at a high level – and the results will follow. Or not. And he’s fine with it. Finally, the retiree. An odd thing to say about a mid-30s man, but the way Rory McIlroy spoke Tuesday at the third major of the year got you wondering, really, what’s keeping him excited to compete.

“I’m sort of just taking it tournament by tournament at this point,” McIlroy said when asked a job-interview type question Tuesday on what his five-year plan was.

Alas, the grand slam winner can be given a bit of grace. No matter if you’re a top-tier sportsman or a politician or an accountant, what would you do if you worked your entire life for something and then it happened? Perhaps McIlroy just doesn’t have a new plan yet.

“Just trying to find the motivation to go back out there and work as hard as I’ve been working,” McIlroy said. “I worked incredibly hard on my game from October last year all the way up until April this year. It was nice to sort of see the fruits of my labor come to fruition and have everything happen.

“But at the same time, you have to enjoy that. You have to enjoy what you’ve just accomplished. I certainly feel like I’m still doing that, and I will continue to do that.”

Regardless of how McIlroy has prepared – and it’s been less-than-stellar, coming into Oakmont after his worst-career result on the PGA Tour, finishing 149th at the RBC Canadian Open en route to an obvious early exit – he is certainly part of the three-headed monster of favourites this week along with Scheffler and DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion.

For DeChambeau, who defeated McIlroy with some late-Sunday, final-hole heroics a year ago at Pinehurst, he’s looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Brooks Koepka in 2017-18.

DeChambeau has been in the mix in the first two majors of the year, being in the final group alongside McIlroy Sunday at the Masters before finishing tied for fifth. He also finished tied for second at the PGA Championship.

The big difference for DeChambeau has been with his approach play, but ever the tinkerer – he said he’s got some new irons in the bag this week.

“I’ve optimized it a little bit more, so hopefully that helps with those overdraws in my irons. You never know. But they seem to have helped this week, and hopefully it aids for me this week,” DeChambeau said. “The golf ball is a longer discussion. That’s going to be a bit of time. I’m still working on it. We think later this year I’ll have a golf ball that will be very interesting to test. If it helps, who knows. It’s a test. But I’m excited to keep researching and trying and experimenting and optimizing.

“My goal right now is just to optimize myself to another level.”

And, Bryson, a follow-up question if we may? If McIlroy is struggling to find motivation, how do you get charged up for the biggest stages in the sport?

“I somehow always seem to find a little bit of hope, give myself a little bit of hope, and another part of it is doing it for the fans, patrons and the people that are viewing myself on YouTube,” he said. “That’s really what gets me up in the morning and gives me a lot of passion for this game.”

OK, so – YouTube (DeChambeau said Phil Mickelson and Jon Rahm asked him for advice on starting an account). And McIlroy said he’s been excited to play more tennis with his friends and travel the world with his five-year-old, Poppy.

Differing approaches, certainly.

But then there’s Scheffler.

The world’s No. 1 player has been playing exactly like that lately. He’s won three of his last four PGA Tour starts, and the one he didn’t win he finished tied for fourth. He won the PGA Championship and finished solo fourth at the Masters with his B game. It’s been wildly impressive – and a little scary.

“I think that’s the thing about it is guys are playing unbelievable, like Xander did last year, like Rory is this year, but it’s just that Scottie is also doing that. You can’t really catch that if he keeps doing what he’s doing,” said former world No. 1 Justin Thomas.

Scheffler, to his credit, has been his usual calm self. He’s going to go out and try to hit good golf shots and find it and go after it again and again. It’s boring, sure, but holy smokes – does it work. Scheffler is first in strokes gained: total so far this season on the PGA Tour, and first in strokes gained: off the tee, and tee to green. So, at Oakmont, where you have to hit it in the fairways and you have to hit it on the green, how can you look past the best player in the world?

“This is probably the hardest golf course that we’ll play, maybe ever, and that’s pretty much all it is,” Scheffler admitted. “Starting Thursday morning, we’re at even par and it’s up to me to go out there and play against the golf course and see what I can do.”

There’s a real chance, then, that Scheffler – who will no doubt have to top McIlroy (who is gunning for a record-tying seventh top-10 finish in a row at the U.S. Open) and DeChambeau (who has won this championship twice) – will win this week and then get three-quarters of the way to the career grand slam.

And that, well, is no joke.

Best Bets

Let’s take the triumvirate of Scheffler, DeChambeau and McIlroy out of the equation. Here are some other golfers worth a look this week.

Jon Rahm (+1200): Has notched 19 straight top-10 results on LIV. Has finished T14, T8 at the first two majors of the year and won the U.S. Open in 2021 with a game that is built for this kind of beefy test.

Xander Schauffele (+2200): Schauffele has never missed the cut at the U.S. Open and his worst finish at this major is a T14(!) with seven of eight results being inside the top 10. Schauffele has had a pedestrian season (especially compared to his 2024), but his best result of the year came at the Masters. Don’t be surprised if he busts out this week.

Shane Lowry (+3300): Lowry was the 54-hole leader at Oakmont, the last time the major was contested here in 2016. He tumbled down the leaderboard Sunday but finally broke through for a major win in 2019. He’s had top-10 finishes at some tricky layouts like Bay Hill and Philadelphia Cricket Club (plus a runner-up at Pebble Beach). Comes in after four rounds in the 60s at the RBC Canadian Open, where he was in the mix into Sunday.

Corey Conners (+5500): If you’re looking for a discount-brand Scottie Scheffler, look no further than the Canadian. He has put together a wonderfully consistent body of work, with 19 top-25s in 26 starts over the last 12 months. He has five top-10s so far this season, with three of them coming at major venues like TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill and Augusta National. Conners sits 10th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee.

Harris English (+8000): One of the game’s best ball-strikers who just so happens to also be inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour in putting. English won the Farmers Insurance Open at another U.S. Open venue – Torrey Pines – and finished T2 at the PGA Championship, plus T12 at the Masters (and he’s never missed the cut at the U.S. Open, either).

Odds via BetMGM

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