Here Is Why Bitcoin Is Stuck Around $110,000

According to the firm, institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains strong, providing a solid base of support.

Front-end implied volatility continues to hold firm, a sign that traders are positioning for potential headlines emerging from this week’s Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas (May 27–29). The event features high-profile speakers including U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump — drawing increased attention from both retail and institutional players.

QCP analysts also highlighted historical precedent, pointing to last July’s Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. At that event, a keynote speech by President Donald Trump caused a surge in 1-day implied volatility, which topped 90, and was followed by a sharp 30% decline in BTC within two days. This past event continues to shape current market sentiment and trader caution.

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While QCP views the probability of a similar drawdown as low, current positioning still reflects a defensive tone. Perpetuals open interest has declined, and funding rates have normalized. Well-known high-beta traders, including James Wynn, are reported to have reduced their exposure. At the same time, demand for short-dated downside protection remains elevated.

Adding to the caution, unconfirmed reports about Trump Media pursuing a $3 billion crypto capital raise have introduced further sensitivity to headlines — even though the claims have been officially denied.

Overall, QCP expects BTC to remain within its current trading band in the near term. Once the Bitcoin Conference concludes and headline risk subsides, they anticipate a decline in implied volatility as market risk premiums compress.

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