Greg McElroy Names College Football Program With Strongest 2025 Conference Title Odds

Four conferences. Four new champions? Like it? Love it? Not so fast, my friend. In Happy Valley, a far heavier declaration hangs like a sword: ‘Natty or Bust.’ And for James Franklin, staring down the gauntlet of 2025, it’s not just a prediction—it’s an ultimatum etched in his 1-14 record against the AP Top 5. ‘Big Game James’? The moniker mocks him now. Yes, his roster bleeds NFL talent. Yes, 2024’s ‘Cinderella story’ ended in a heart-stopping 24-27 clash with No. 2. But the fairy dust dissolved into a familiar, unsettling truth: something fundamental still cracks under the brightest lights. He clawed his way to the Orange Bowl, sure. But at what cost? Boise? SMU? Meaningless. The scalps that matter—Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame—remain painfully out of reach. Twelve seasons in, James Franklin isn’t merely chasing a championship anymore. He’s sprinting headlong toward redemption—or ruin. The validation of an entire era rests on this run.

Now, into this pressure cooker steps ESPN’s Greg McElroy, throwing gasoline on the fire with a preseason prediction that cuts through the noise: “Right now, in the preseason, and like I said in the preseason early going, I would lean just ever so slightly in favor of Penn State.” While it might sound like a big nothing burger, McElroy has a pretty good reason for suggesting the Lions as the next B1G champs. Let’s talk facts: Nevada, Florida, and Villanova? For Franklin, these are glorified scrimmages. The pressure truly mounts when Dan Lanning arrives at Happy Valley on the 27th. On the surface, it might seem like the same team that went band for band against the Lions last season could end up doing the same—peel back the hype, however, and the landscape shifts dramatically.

Lanning’s most glaring vulnerability? The gaping hole left by Dillon Gabriel‘s departure to the NFL. The million-dollar question in Eugene isn’t if Dante Moore takes the reins, but can he carry the load? Moore’s 2024 line (14 games, 121-for-221, 1,600+ yards, 11 TDs, 9 INTs) screams ‘capable backup.’ But stacked against Drew Allar—Franklin’s battle-tested, NFL-bound QB1 entering his third season as the undisputed starter—those numbers look distinctly like rookie figures facing a veteran general.

This inherent volatility of a new QB under the brightest lights is something Franklin won’t waste a second to exploit. Else, what’s even the point of opening the vault for Jim Knowles? Penn State’s $3.1 million coordinator isn’t just an upgrade; he’s a tactical tsunami, purpose-built to drown inexperienced quarterbacks like Dante Moore.

Ripped from Ohio State just days after delivering them a national title with the nation’s #1 defense (12.9 PPG, 255 YPG), Knowles brings his ‘evil genius’ game plans to Happy Valley – the same schemes that held Penn State’s offense, featuring Allar, to one measly touchdown in two brutal meetings. Just freaking think: The man who spent two years dissecting Drew Allar now spends every day sharpening him. Surviving this encounter with the Ducks will validate Franklin’s struggle to hitch the ‘Big Game James’ moniker, but the ultimate litmus test doesn’t lie with Eugene.

It circles back to that one team that has been dog-walking Penn State for the last 8 seasons.

The November Crucible: Why the Ohio State game is ‘make-or-break’ for James Franklin?

“This is the season James Franklin’s entire coaching career could be judged by… If they can’t change their big-game problems with this group, it’s not happening.” 8 agonizing years of fourth-quarter collapses, conservative play-calling, and psychological scars that linger in Happy Valley like winter fog. Ryan Day and Co. live rent-free in Franklin’s head, and it is about time the Penn State HC finally does something about it.

In the preseason war, the Lions struck the first blow with the Knowles snatch. However, Day wasn’t counting peanuts while all of this was going down. Enter Matt Patricia—a controversial but talented NFL retread. Despite many Buckeyes fans calling this a bad call, because of the entire Detroit Lions collapse under Patricia—this DC move still has some weight and it lies with Ryan Day’s systematic edge: elite trench depth (four returning O-line starters), NFL-ready receivers (Carnell Tate, Jeremiah Smith), and a sadistic 45% blitz rate that historically suffocates Allar.

At the end of the day, McElroy’s ‘slight lean’ hinges entirely on Franklin conquering Ohio State’s reloaded hydra. A September win over Oregon? Expected. Surviving Wisconsin’s October slog? Routine. But until Penn State buries the Buckeyes—until Allar outduels Julian Sayin under November’s White Out glare—the prediction remains fantasy.

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