Games That Will Define the AFC Playoff Picture: Bills vs Chiefs, Patriots vs Broncos and More

While the NFC is very deep and has 12+ teams that could make the playoffs, the AFC is much more top-heavy. I don’t think they have as many teams that will be competitive, but when you get to the top, boy, it gets scary.

There will be a playoff race, but there 4-5 teams that I feel pretty good about guaranteeing they’ll be in the playoffs. The AFC playoff race will be more about seeding than who actually gets in, and as I was going through each team’s opponents for the upcoming season, there were a lot of games that piqued my interest.

Here are six games that are going to define the AFC playoff picture in 2026.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) following the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports @Gargi

Do I even need to explain myself here? Every time the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off it’s absolute cinema, and this year should be no different.

The Chiefs had a down year in 2025, winning just six games even though Patrick Mahomes was healthy for a lot of the year. But it’s not like they weren’t competitive. Seven of their 11 losses came by one score against playoff teams, and two of them came without Mahomes leading the charge. They lost some key secondary pieces this offseason, but they had a solid draft and I fully expect them to be in the playoff hunt.

As for the Bills, they also had a bit of a down year, but they still managed to make it to the AFC Divisional Round and took the 1-seed in the AFC to the wire. If it weren’t for a questionable interception call in overtime, they very well could’ve been in the AFC Championship game. They still have some defensive issues to fix, but they had a pretty strong offseason as well.

If these two teams return to form, this game could have a big say in who ends up with the 1-seed in the AFC. And even if they don’t, they’ll both be playoff contenders, so a win or loss here could change the outcome of their season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 16: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix 10 looks on before a preseason game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on August 16, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA AUG 16 Preseason Cardinals at Broncos EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon132250816142

The Denver Broncos earned the 1-seed in the AFC last season and were a freak Bo Nix injury away from making it to the Super Bowl. If Nix were healthy, I fully believe Denver would’ve pulled it out against the Patriots and represented the AFC in the big game. But as my mom says, if ifs and buts were candies and nuts we’d all have a Merry Christmas (I don’t know if that’s an actual saying, but shout out my mom).

Who did the Broncos dethrone for the 1-seed in the AFC? The Chiefs. Again, the Chiefs had a down year last season, but there’s no reason to believe they can’t turn things around and be right in the mix for the top seed again in 2026. As long as they have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, I will never count them out.

A great thing about this matchup is we get to see it twice, once in Denver and once in Kansas City. If one team is able to sweep this series, it will set them up big time for the rest of the year.

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

SANTA CLARA, CA – FEBRUARY 08: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye 10 back to pass during the Seattle Seahawks versus the New England Patriots Super Bowl LX game on February 8, 2026, at Levi s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA FEB 08 Super Bowl LX Seahawks vs Patriots EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon2602083185

How about a rematch of the AFC Championship game? That’s ought to be a big one.

The New England Patriots came out of nowhere last season and completely shocked the world, winning 14 games and claiming the 2-seed in the AFC. They had a very easy schedule, but still managed to knock off the Chargers, Texans and Broncos en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Obviously, the Super Bowl didn’t go too well for them, but it was an incredible turn around nonetheless.

The AFC Championship game was actually not very entertaining. Bo Nix was hurt, these teams boasted two of the best defenses in the league and the weather got ugly in the second half, but if both quarterbacks are healthy in this game, there’s no reason this game won’t be one of the best of the year.

Two storied franchises with Super Bowl aspirations meeting to potentially determine the 1-seed in the AFC? Sign me up.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

January 4, 2026, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA: January 4, 2026: Lamar Jackson 8 and Nick Herbig 51 during the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh PA. Brook Ward / Apparent Media Group. Pittsburgh USA – ZUMAa234 20260104_zsa_a234_425 Copyright: xAMGx

Thought we’d go this whole time without talking about the AFC North? They all took the year off last season, but the AFC North is always one of the most interesting divisions to watch, and the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens should be at the forefront of the conversation.

“But what about the Steelers? They won the AFC North last year!” Well, I don’t care. They stumbled backwards into the division win, and I think the Bengals and Ravens both got a whole lot better this offseason, while the Steelers still don’t even know if they have a quarterback.

The Bengals always have one of the best offenses in the league when Joe Burrow is healthy, and now they actually have some semblance of a defense. They added Bryan Cook, Boye Mafe, Dexter Lawrence and Cashius Howell to the mix, so even if they have an average or slightly below average defense, they’ll be in the AFC North race.

The Ravens are always in the mix, even though they’re in year one under a new head coach. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearhead one of the best rushing attacks in the league, while Jesse Minter is looking to return this defense to their dominant form.

I believe the AFC North will come down to these two teams, and if one of them sweeps the series, they’ll likely take the crown.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

January 12, 2026, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback AARON RODGERS 8 throws a pass from the pocket during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA playoff football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh USA – ZUMAg257 20260112_zsp_g257_001 Copyright: xBrentxGudenschwagerx

I know I was just talking trash about the Steelers, but it would be dumb to count them out completely. Aaron Rodgers is eventually going to stop being a primadonna and announce his return to the NFL, and if that happens, they could be a threat again.

Offensively, the Steelers made big improvements, bringing in Michael Pittman Jr., Germie Bernard, Max Iheanachor and Rico Dowdle. And defensively, they added veteran corner Jamel Dean and high-upside safety Jaquan Brisker to a unit that ranked 17th in scoring. They should be an above average unit on both sides of the ball, but my question is, will they be great enough at anything to beat out the Ravens and Bengals?

You could say the Steelers vs Ravens or Steelers vs Bengals should be on here, but I went with Baltimore because of their heated rivalry. These two hate each other, and if the AFC North comes down to these two duking it out in Week 18 again, I’m sure they’ll both remember how last year ended. And even if neither of these teams win the AFC North, they’ll both be in the mix for a Wild Card spot, so this two-game series will be super important.

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

FOXBOROUGH, MA – JANUARY 18: C.J. Stroud 7 of the Houston Texans in warm up before an AFC Divisional Round game between the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans on January 18, 2026, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA JAN 18 AFC Divisional Round Texans at Patriots EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon482260118057

There are two teams I’ve neglected throughout this article, and it’s not because I don’t think they’ll be in the AFC race, but it’s because they don’t really play any of these big teams. However, the Houston Texans’ and Jacksonville Jaguars’ series is going to be a big one.

The AFC South is going to be a three-horse race, but I ultimately think it’ll come down to Houston and Jacksonville. Whichever one of those two comes out on top will earn a top-four seed (probably the 3-seed at worst) and home field advantage, while the other will hit the road for the Wild Card Round. We saw this play out last year with the Seahawks and Rams. Even though LA was the second-best team in the NFC, they were the 5-seed after losing the division and had to go on the road for every playoff game, and it ended up costing them in the NFC Championship.

Will Liam Coen’s offense come out on top? Or will DeMeco Ryans’ defense shut them down? Whichever teams wins this matchup will put themselves in a great spot heading into the postseason.

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