Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 10% as Senate Clock Runs Out

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Key Takeaways

Galaxy’s forecast covers the chance of final enactment, not just the odds of winning the next procedural vote. A procedural vote is listed for September 15, but clearing it would only open debate, not complete passage. The main obstacles are an unresolved government-ethics agreement, pressure from banks and uncertainty over developer protections, all compressed into a short Senate session. SEC exemptions could deliver parts of the bill’s agenda without Congress, but agency action would be narrower, easier to challenge and less durable than legislation.

How the Senate Calendar Eroded Galaxy’s Confidence

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, published the latest downgrade on August 14. Galaxy had raised its estimate to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in May. It then fell to 60% in early June, 50% later that month and 30% in July as Senate days disappeared without agreements on the remaining disputes. These are Galaxy’s analytical estimates, not official congressional probabilities.

Why September 15 Is Not a Passage Vote

The bill lost its August opportunity and shifted to September after the Senate left Washington without holding a floor vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune then filed the procedural motion needed to bring it back when lawmakers return.

The official Senate schedule says the cloture motion connected to H.R. 3633 is due to ripen on September 15 at 2:15 p.m. Supporters need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and begin debate.

A Reuters report published on August 8 read Thune’s filing as a sign that Republican leaders still believed the coalition might be reachable. Reuters’ view is more optimistic about the next step. Galaxy is rating the entire journey from that opening vote to a signed law.

Winning cloture would still leave floor debate, amendments, a final Senate vote and possible House action on any changes. The Senate returns on September 14 and leaves again for election activity in early October. Government funding, nominations and other unfinished legislation will be competing for the same short stretch of floor time.

Three Disputes Still Stand Between CLARITY and 60 Votes

Government ethics: Negotiating Democrats want stronger restrictions on public officials’ crypto interests. No public agreement has emerged between the senators involved and the White House, leaving the bill without a clear route to the Democratic votes needed for cloture. Stablecoin rewards: Community banks and their trade groups oppose provisions that could let crypto platforms compete for deposits through customer rewards. That pressure can weaken Republican as well as Democratic support. Developer protections: Law-enforcement advocates want tougher safeguards against illicit finance, while the industry warns that further changes could treat non-custodial software developers like intermediaries that control customer funds.

Each dispute may be negotiable. The difficulty is solving all three early enough for Senate leaders to reserve most of September for the bill. A late compromise could arrive after the practical deadline for passing it.

SEC Relief Would Be Faster, Narrower and Less Durable

Thorn expects the SEC to move even if Congress does not. Reg Crypto would create a tailored route for certain public cryptoasset offerings, while an Innovation Exemption could allow limited experiments with secondary trading of tokenized securities. Both overlap with sections of CLARITY.

The SEC canceled its August 14 open meeting, where commissioners were expected to consider the tailored offering regime. The agency cited an unforeseen scheduling issue, while the Innovation Exemption has faced separate delays amid resistance from traditional securities firms.

The SEC can change securities rules under its existing authority, but it cannot settle the broader division of responsibility with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or create CLARITY’s full registration system. Exemptions are also easier to challenge, narrow or reverse than an act of Congress. They could provide useful operating space without ending the need for legislation.

CLARITY Act: Why the August Recess Could Expose Its Biggest Weakness

Without CLARITY, US Crypto Policy Would Arrive in Pieces

A failed 2026 vote would not stop trading, tokenization or institutional adoption. The industry has continued launching products through every legislative delay. The concern, explored in our analysis of whether America can keep pace without CLARITY, is where companies choose to build when the United States offers temporary exemptions instead of a stable national framework.

In that scenario, policy would advance through separate agency decisions, court rulings and limited safe harbors. Large institutions may be able to absorb the resulting legal uncertainty. Startups and developers have less room for rules that can change with each commission or court decision.

The First Vote Will Test Galaxy’s Forecast

Clearing the 60-vote threshold would show that Senate leaders have assembled a working coalition and would justify revisiting Galaxy’s estimate. A delay or failed vote would leave almost no credible path to enactment in 2026.

Even success would require leadership to keep CLARITY on the floor and settle the ethics dispute quickly. SEC exemptions could still matter to issuers and tokenized markets, but September will decide whether 2026 retains a legislative route or only the regulatory fallback Thorn describes.

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