Explaining how Senators have been better without Brady Tkachuk than with

OTTAWA — It’s a crazy fact, but this season the Ottawa Senators have been better without Brady Tkachuk.

With Tkachuk in the lineup: 3-8-0.

With Tkachuk out of the lineup: 11-5-4.

Is that Tkachuk’s fault? 

No.

He and his team could be better, sure, which they were in an impressive 6-3 win in Columbus on Thursday.

But let’s be clear: Tkachuk isn’t mainly, much less solely, to blame for the Senators’ lack of success with him in the lineup.

So, how do we explain this dumbfounding truth? 

Teammate Claude Giroux has an answer.

“That has nothing to do with Brady,” said Giroux. “I don’t think we’re playing that bad of hockey. Can we play better? Yeah, of course. But we’re doing a lot of good things right now, and it’s going to start clicking.”

Giroux had one explanation. Now let’s take a Tkachuk punch at it.

It’s a combination of factors: Subpar defending, poor puck luck, an injury to the immensely valuable Shane Pinto, mediocre goaltending, and Tkachuk not playing at his apex. 

Here are the numbers for the Senators without Tkachuk and since his return.

Statistics from Natural StatTrick

When sifting through the numbers, maybe the most telling stat is that the Senators went from the best defensive team to the middle of the pack in expected goals against while generating more offence, even though they aren’t converting as frequently with Tkachuk back.

One way to describe the Senators since Tkachuk has returned: run-and-gun. Ottawa went from one of the most low-event teams in hockey, neither creating nor allowing many chances, to the opposite, creating many chances while allowing many. What worked so well for the Senators was simple, defensive-minded hockey. The analytics and the eye test will tell you they’ve taken their foot off the suffocating defensive hockey, to generate more, but also give up more chances. 

“We’re not a team that just goes out and has two or three guys just dominate the game,” Senators coach Travis Green said after their loss against New Jersey.

As good as Tkachuk is, and for that matter Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson, they aren’t the calibre of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon or Cale Makar. For the Senators to be successful, there has to be a collective commitment to defensive-minded hockey, which has taken a step back since Tkachuk’s return. 

“If you look at the teams that win championships, they don’t give up a lot,” Green told Sportsnet.ca last week about the ethos he’s trying to instil in his team. 

“From Day 1 last year, I think (defence) was the one area that we needed to make sure was solidified into our group, and the real belief that if we check and play well (on) defence, we will win games. I don’t even look at it as defensive hockey. It’s just trying to get the puck back and not give up much, and we usually end up creating more chances when we do that.”

Another important explanation that should regress in the Senators favour is the elusive “puck luck.”

Four of their five losses with Tkachuk have been one-goal games, as the Senators are tied for the most regulation one-goal losses of any team this season. So close, yet so far down the standings the Senators have gone. Plus, the Senators are 18th in shooting percentage since Tkachuk’s return. It could be a different story, as it was against Columbus Thursday night, when they potted five goals, discounting an empty-netter. 

“It’s frustrating,” Tkachuk said about the recent losses. “It feels like (we) just can’t buy a point. Can’t buy a win right now, but I know it’s just going to turn.”

Meanwhile, Tkachuk has had plenty of sticks to the face, getting high-sticked in three straight games. A metaphor for his return to the lineup.

Injuries have also played a role, notably the absences of Pinto and Thomas Chabot, which are almost, if not as important as the absence of Tkachuk was. Without Chabot, Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence have struggled against better competition. The duo was directly at fault for three of the four goals against New Jersey on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Pinto was shutting down opponents, while providing secondary five-on-five scoring. Since Pinto was injured on Dec. 4, the Senators have four five-on-five goals. This season, Pinto has contributed the second-most of any Senators of five-on-five points with 14, and he’s been on the ice for 22 five-on-five Senator goals. 

Neither Chabot nor Pinto is expected to be out long term, but neither will return during the Senators’ current road trip. 

Maybe the most fascinating aspect of Tkachuk’s return has been the effect on Stutzle. The duo has been outscored 6-4 at five-on-five this season. One would expect Tkachuk’s reintegration would do wonders for Stutzle; in fact, it’s done the opposite. Stutzle has five points in seven games with Tkachuk back. When Tkachuk was out, Stutzle had 11 goals and 22 points in 20 games. However, Green has separated and then reunited the duo since Tkachuk’s return, hoping to find a spark, and on Thursday against Columbus they were dominant, with Stutzle scoring twice. 

“When you’re not scoring, or you haven’t scored a couple games, you’re looking to try something new,” said Green. “As coaches, that’s part of our job, is to try to get spark. You hope something clicks.”

The hope is that both can get hot at the same time, which is paramount for the Senators to re-emerge into the playoff picture. When Stutzle scored on the power play on Tuesday, there was an observable relief as Tkachuk embraced him. 

Lastly, Tkachuk himself needs to be better. Nine points in 10 games is pretty good, especially combined with stellar analytics. But one goal all season won’t do it.

Against Columbus, Tkachuk slowly laboured back in transition from the offensive zone, arriving back at his own net-front too late to stop Boone Jenner from scoring. Early in the third period, Green had what looked like a sharp verbal exchange with Tkachuk on the bench. Tkachuk has been a liability defensively in the past but improved last season, finishing 128th of 704 skaters with 2.26 expected goals allowed when he was on the ice, according to Evolving Hockey. He needs to return to that defensive form this season to lead by example. 

We know the Senators won’t remain at a .272 points percentage team with Tkachuk for the rest of the season. But it’s incumbent on the captain to lead the team back to the playoffs. If not, the discussion around Tkachuk will not only be about his ability to win, but also his future in Ottawa.

Adams’ Apples

Dylan Cozens heating up in time

For the first time in his career as an Ottawa Senator, Dylan Cozens had two five-on-five points in one game, coming against Columbus on Thursday night, finishing with three assists. Cozens has struggled mightily at five-on-five this season with a minus-12, but he has six points in four games since Pinto got hurt. The onus is on Cozens to continue to produce with an enlarged role. Meanwhile, Green seems to like the duo of Drake Batherson and Cozens, continually playing them together. They have an elite 57.16 expected goals at five-on-five share when they are together.

MacDermid bump

One of the strangest stats in the NHL: Despite averaging only 4:20 ice-time per game, the Senators are 7-1-2 with Kurtis MacDermid in the lineup. MacDermid is known for his fisticuffs more than his dekes. The Senators certainly aren’t winning because of his impact on the ice, but one possible reason for the success is that his restricted ice time allows them to play their star players more often. Don’t fight what’s working.

Eller injured

Lars Eller left the game against Columbus after blocking a shot and looked in serious pain in the second period. There was no update on his return. Ottawa’s injury woes continue.