Cardano Rallied to Its March Breakdown Zone: RSI Says Watch Out

How the MA 100 Built the Rally and Where It Stands Now

From May 4, Cardano began climbing steadily from around $0.248, and through every pullback in the following days, the MA 100 at $0.2652 acted as the floor. Price would dip toward the blue line, find buyers, and reverse. That pattern repeated across multiple sessions, building a structure of higher lows anchored to the MA 100. The MA 100 built the recent rally by absorbing every pullback as rising support: now price is above it for the first time in weeks, and whether it holds on the first test from above determines whether this is a trend or a bounce.

The RSI reading at the session high is the warning. ADA’s RSI sits at 61.73 while its signal line reads 70.98, a spread of 9.25 points with the signal above the RSI. When the RSI signal crosses above the RSI on the 14-period close, it reflects momentum that has already peaked and is beginning to fade. Price reached a session high near $0.2780-$0.2800 and has since pulled back to $0.2748. The pullback is modest in absolute terms but significant in timing: it is happening exactly at the level where price was previously rejected in March, with RSI already rolling over. A further pullback toward the MA 100 at $0.2652 in the coming sessions is the higher-probability near-term scenario.

The March Rejection Zone ADA Has Just Re-Entered

The medium-term picture runs from mid-March to today. In mid-March, ADA was trading near $0.2950-$0.2995 before a sharp decline began. That level marked the origin of a multi-week selloff that pushed price down through April. On March 25, ADA attempted to recover and reclaim the breakdown zone, reaching approximately $0.270-$0.275 before being rejected and continuing lower. The current price of $0.2748 is sitting inside that same rejection zone. The March 25 rejection happened at almost exactly current price, which means ADA is not approaching resistance: it is already at it, and the RSI is already signaling that momentum is fading at precisely that level.

Converting this zone from resistance to support requires a close above $0.275 on meaningful volume, something the current session has not yet produced. For ADA to clear this zone and begin the move Ali Charts is targeting, it needs to convert $0.275 from a rejection level into a confirmed support, which requires a sustained close above it on meaningful volume. That has not yet happened. The current session is showing a pullback from the zone’s upper boundary without a confirmed breakout. The MA 100 at $0.2652 is the first line of defense on a pullback: holding it would keep the bullish structure intact. Losing it would indicate the recovery from $0.25 has stalled and that a deeper retest of lower support is required before the next attempt.

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What the Monthly Analysis Adds to the Picture

Analyst Ali Martinez identified $0.25 as a critical monthly support level with a documented track record. In January 2023, ADA bounced from $0.25 and produced an 88.27% rally over the following weeks. In September 2023, the same level held and sparked a move that reached 243% from that base. Ali Charts noted that ADA is currently bouncing off this floor again, calling for a primary target of $0.36 and a secondary macro target of $0.53 as long as $0.25 holds.

$0.25 is a critical support level for Cardano!

In my analysis of the monthly chart, this floor has acted as a launchpad for significant rebounds on two major occasions:

• January 2023: $ADA bounced off $0.25, resulting in a 88.27% rally over the following weeks.
• September… pic.twitter.com/COknFMkG3H

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 9, 2026

Ali Charts’ $0.25 floor has done its job twice before with 88% and 243% returns. The question is not whether the floor worked: it already did. The question is whether the current level converts from rejection zone to launchpad. The short-term chart and the monthly analysis are not in conflict: they describe the same setup from different timeframes. The monthly floor provided the bounce. The short-term structure is now testing whether that bounce has enough momentum to clear the March rejection zone and begin the next leg toward $0.36.

The confirmation signal is ADA sustaining a close above $0.2780 on above-average volume within 48 hours, which would indicate the March rejection zone has been absorbed. The denial signal is a close below the MA 100 at $0.2652 within 24 hours, which would indicate the momentum fade has overwhelmed the recovery structure and that a retest of lower support is the next move before any approach toward $0.36.

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