BTC Holds Strong Despite Macro Turmoil, Says QCP Capital

A sharp U.S. policy shift—doubling steel tariffs on China to 50% and expanding tech sanctions—triggered a broad risk-off move, leading to nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations since Friday.

Even BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which had maintained a 34-day inflow streak, recorded $430 million in outflows. Despite the shakeout, BTC remained remarkably stable, holding above $102,000.

Some investors chose to exit, but others leaned into the dip. Notably, Metaplanet purchased an additional $114 million in Bitcoin following the selloff, raising its total holdings to 8,888 BTC—a symbolic and strategic milestone.

QCP observed that short-term volatility has compressed significantly, with risk reversals normalizing across various maturities.

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Perpetual funding rates have turned neutral, suggesting that recent flushes of leveraged positions—such as those associated with trader James Wynn—have largely cleared.

Looking ahead, QCP expects macro factors to remain the dominant narrative through June, particularly around U.S.-China tariff tensions. With major policy milestones not expected until July 8, the firm anticipates rangebound BTC trading in the short term. It identifies the $100,000 and $110,000 levels as key to watch, due to high open interest on monthly strike options at those thresholds.

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