Bitcoin, Stocks, and Dow Jones Show Surprising Correlation Over Long Term

The chart, sourced from MacroMicro, compares the performance of:

Bitcoin (teal line) Total U.S. stock market capitalization (yellow line) Dow Jones Industrial Average (red line)

From mid-2020 through early 2025, all three assets demonstrated a general upward trajectory, despite periods of divergence during heightened volatility. Bitcoin, while showing sharper fluctuations, has largely tracked the broader momentum of U.S. equities and the stock market’s expansion.

Key takeaways:

Between July 2020 and January 2025, Bitcoin saw multiple volatile cycles but ultimately aligned directionally with equities. During bull markets (e.g., late 2020 and early 2024), Bitcoin outpaced stocks in gains. Corrections in the stock market often coincided with dips in Bitcoin, emphasizing its growing sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.

The convergence suggests Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as a macro asset, reacting to monetary policy, inflation, and broader investor sentiment alongside stocks. As U.S. equities approach new highs, the data implies Bitcoin may continue to benefit from institutional flows and economic optimism—assuming risk appetite remains elevated.

With Bitcoin currently trading near the upper range of its multi-year trendline, many analysts believe that as long as U.S. market strength persists, Bitcoin’s relative correlation could support higher price discovery throughout 2025.

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