Bitcoin Faces Resistance at Key Acceleration Level, Says 21st Capital

According to Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, Bitcoin is currently encountering heavy resistance at the boundary between the Transition and Acceleration zones—an area where price historically falters before explosive upside.

“Bitcoin has typically had difficulty moving from the Transition zone to the Acceleration zone,” he noted in a recent model update. “Multiple failed breakout attempts are not unusual.”

At a current price of $105K, BTC has now rejected three times at this key quantile level—more than seen during the last market cycle, which faced only minor resistance.

Breakout Imminent? Quantile Zone Proves Reliable

Sina emphasized that every rejection has occurred precisely at the Acceleration zone boundary, confirming the zone’s reliability as a technical and behavioral barrier.

“Every time, right around the boundary of Acceleration,” he wrote, “confirming that this quantile level is meaningful.”

However, history shows that once Bitcoin breaks cleanly above this level, the market typically enters a rapid expansion phase.

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Bitcoin Targeting $120,000 While Altcoins Signal Historic Breakout Potential

Liquidity to Fuel Upside in Late 2025

Looking ahead, 21st Capital’s macro analysis at BIR suggests a positive liquidity regime will begin in Q3 and Q4—perfectly aligned with the timing of breakout potential according to their cycle model.

“This clearly aligns with the top timing of the cycle model,” Sina concluded.
With a 60% risk score, the current setup remains uncertain, but momentum could shift dramatically with macro tailwinds.

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