AFC East Record Predictions: Will the Bills or Patriots Come Out on Top?

5 days ago 2

The AFC East is one of the most fascinating divisions in the entire NFL this season. At the top, there are two teams – the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills – that have a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. But at the bottom, there are two teams – the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins – that could be in the running for the first overall pick.

While this is only going to be a two-horse race, that doesn’t mean it won’t be entertaining. The Bills and Patriots will go back-and-forth all year long, and whoever comes out on top will have a massive advantage in the playoffs.

Today, I went through all four teams’ schedules and determined who I think will win the AFC East in 2026.

New England Patriots

DENVER, CO – JANUARY 25: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye 10 has a word with New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels before the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on January 25, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA JAN 25 AFC Championship Game Patriots at Broncos EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon132260125012

2025 Record: 14-3

AFC East Odds: +125

The New England Patriots were kings of the AFC East last season, but they currently have the second-best odds to win the division behind the Buffalo Bills.

Offensively, the Patriots only got better. They added A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs to help replace Stefon Diggs, and they beefed up their offensive line with the additions of Alijah Vera-Tucker and Caleb Lomu. This is an offense that finished second in scoring last year, and should once again be a top-10 unit.

On defense, the Patriots lost a few key pieces. K’Lavon Chaisson, Jaylinn Hawkins, and Khyiris Tonga all left in free agency, but they responded by bringing in Dre’Mont Jones, Kevin Byard, and Gabe Jacas. I don’t think it was an even trade, but I don’t expect this defense to decline significantly.

The thing that could trip New England up is their schedule. Their schedule was historically easy last season, and this year, it’s going to be much, much, much more difficult. As a team, I think they’re just as good as they were last year, but I think they’ll drop a couple more games because of their schedule.

Record Prediction

at Seattle Seahawks – L

vs Pittsburgh Steelers – W

at Jacksonville Jaguars – L

at Buffalo Bills – L

vs Las Vegas Raiders – W

vs New York Jets – W

at Chicago Bears – W

at Miami Dolphins – W

vs Green Bay Packers – W

at Detroit Lions – W

at Los Angeles Chargers – W

vs Buffalo Bills – W

vs Minnesota Vikings – W

at Kansas City Chiefs – L

at New York Jets – W

vs Denver Broncos – L

vs Miami Dolphins – W

Final Record: 12-5 (5-1)

Buffalo Bills

DENVER, CO – JANUARY 17: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen 17 runs onto the field to warm up before the AFC Divisional Round game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA JAN 17 AFC Divisional Round Bills at Broncos EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon132260117130

2025 Record: 12-5

AFC East Odds: -135

The Buffalo Bills are the current favorites to win the AFC East, and it’s easy to see why.

We all know what the Bills’ offense is capable of with Josh Allen under center. Last year, despite not having a big receiving threat on the outside, the Bills still managed to average 28.3 points per game, which ranked third in the league. Now, they have D.J. Moore, who gives Allen his first true WR1 since Stefon Diggs left a few years back.

Despite some issues in the run game last year, Buffalo’s defense ranked 12th in scoring, surrendering 22.2 points per game. I don’t think they did enough on defense to greatly improve that number, but with the offense they have, it probably won’t matter in a lot of their games.

I think the Patriots and Bills are pretty even skill-wise, but I’m going with my gut and betting on Josh Allen to lead the Bills to the AFC East crown.

Record Prediction

at Houston Texans – W

vs Detroit Lions – L

vs Los Angeles Chargers – L

vs New England Patriots – W

at Los Angeles Rams – W

at Las Vegas Raiders – W

vs Baltimore Ravens – L

at Minnesota Vikings – W

at New York Jets – W

vs Miami Dolphins – W

vs Kansas City Chiefs – W

at New England Patriots – L

at Green Bay Packers – W

vs Chicago Bears – W

at Denver Broncos – W

at Miami Dolphins – W

vs New York Jets – W

Final Record: 13-4 (5-1)

New York Jets

New York Jets running back Breece Hall 20 runs with the ball for a touchdown during an NFL, American Football Herren, USA football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025, in East Rutherford, NJ. /Cal Media East Rutherford United States of America – ZUMAc04_ 20251109_zma_c04_437 Copyright: xChristopherxSzagolax

2025 Record: 3-14

AFC East Odds: +1900

Predicting the Jets’ record proved difficult given their mixed roster moves. I do think this team got significantly better this offseason, bringing in guys like Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr., David Bailey, Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and others, but I don’t trust Geno Smith, and I don’t believe in Aaron Glenn as a head coach, so it was hard to predict them to have too many wins.

On paper, this offense could be quite good. If Geno Smith is even slightly below average, a core of Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Omar Cooper Jr., and Kenyon Sadiq in front of what should be a pretty good offensive line should be able to put up some points.

And then on the defensive side of the ball, they have some good pieces such as Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick as bright spots, but the defense has more weaknesses than strengths.

If this offense gets rolling, New York could win six or seven games, but I don’t think they’re going to do much better than last year.

Record Prediction

at Tennessee Titans – W

vs Green Bay Packers – L

at Detroit Lions – L

at Chicago Bears – L

vs Cleveland Browns – L

at New England Patriots – L

vs Miami Dolphins – W

vs Las Vegas Raiders – W

at Kansas City Chiefs – L

vs Buffalo Bills – L

at Los Angeles Chargers – L

at Miami Dolphins – L

vs Denver Broncos – L

at Arizona Cardinals – L

vs New England Patriots – L

vs Minnesota Vikings – L

at Buffalo Bills – L

Final Record: 3-14 (1-5)

Miami Dolphins

MIAMI GARDENS, FL – MAY 12: Miami Dolphins running back Devon Achane 28 speaks to the media during the rookie minicamp at the Baptist Health Training Complex on May 12, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA MAY 12 Miami Dolphins Rookie Minicamp EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon79620230512010

2025 Record: 7-10

AFC East Odds: +4000

I personally think the Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the league, and on top of that, they hired a head coach that I do not believe in at all.

Miami went from having a fun offense with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane with Mike McDaniel calling plays to having Malik Willis, Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and De’Von Achane with Bobby Slowik calling plays in just a couple of years. That’s a massive downgrade.

Defensively, things aren’t much better. Their pass rush looks abysmal, and outside of Jordyn Brooks, I hardly know who any of their linebackers are.

Sure, there are a lot of fun rookies on this roster that could raise their ceiling, but 2026 is a throwaway year for the Dolphins, who might be the first team to win one or fewer games since 2021.

Record Prediction

at Las Vegas Raiders – L

at San Francisco 49ers – L

vs Kansas City Chiefs – L

at Minnesota Vikings – L

vs Cincinnati Bengals – L

at New York Jets – L

vs New England Patriots – L

vs Detroit Lions – L

at Indianapolis Colts – L

at Buffalo Bills – L

vs New York Jets – W